VIPER closed March 2017 with a +6.54% return.
XIV Buy and Hold (BAH) returned nearly double that with a +12.94%.
VIPER generated a SELL signal on the close 3/21/2017.
Post6 liquidated the LONG XIV position on 3/22/2017 at $69.46.
VIPER was generating BUY signals throughout the trade settlement period.
Post6 acquired a LONG XIV position at $73.63.
This one trade is how XIV BAH outpaced us by close to double the return.
Historically, much more often than not, T+3 actually works in our favor as volatility continues to rise for several trading sessions before leveling off. In this rare case, the SELL signal only lasted one session.
This event, while not in our favor, still illustrates that a disciplined approach to following VIPER’s signals is the path to success. Only with hindsight being 20/20 can we see that a “steamroller” volatility spike was not in the works. As we like to say when a “head fake” like this occurs, the most important thing is to err on the side of caution and “live to trade another day!”